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What if Bitcoin falls 20%, 30%, or 50%?

Compare three price shocks while holding debt and pledged BTC constant.

A lower price shrinks the denominator

Debt does not disappear when BTC falls. If debt and pledged BTC stay fixed, a lower collateral value increases loan-to-value (LTV), the ratio of debt to pledged collateral value. Starting at 30% LTV, a 20% price decline gives 37.5% LTV, a 30% decline gives about 42.86%, and a 50% decline gives 60%.

A 50% decline doubles LTV under these assumptions. The table shows both changed prices and changed ratios so the comparison stays inspectable.

This is a snapshot of price risk

The illustration does not add interest, future draws, repayments, fees, top-ups, or forced sales. Those changes can produce a different result. Floor Stress uses the planner's debt and timing assumptions, so its values may differ from this fixed-debt example.

Compare the result with your chosen thresholds

There is no universal safe LTV or liquidation threshold. Review your lender's agreement for collateral valuation, warning rules, and forced-sale procedures. Use the planner to explore assumptions before making decisions about a real loan.

For a fuller model, open Floor Stress and check the debt and year alongside the BTC price. Keep pledged collateral and available reserve separate. Review the LTV formula or start with borrowing capacity.

Compare lower BTC prices

Example: 1 pledged BTC, a $100,000 starting price, and $30,000 debt. Edit the fields to see how falling prices change your loan-to-value (LTV). The debt stays the same.

Price decline BTC price LTV

Open Floor Stress →

These example inputs stay on this page. Opening the planner does not transfer them.